WHAT WILL Americans remember about the fall of Kabul? Images of Americans filing into a helicopter on the roof of an apartment building defined America’s failure in Vietnam. Five weeks after President Joe Biden promised there would be “no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof”, the image of a helicopter ferrying diplomats away from America’s embassy in Kabul evoked uncomfortable parallels. Polling from the fall of Saigon also gives a clue to how Mr Biden’s reputation at home will fare. After the North Vietnamese overran the American-backed South Vietnamese in 1975, a Time magazine poll found that 38% of people blamed the incumbent president, Gerald Ford, for the fiasco. In 2021, a survey by YouGov, a pollster, conducted between August 14th and 17th found that 33% of people thought that withdrawing from Afghanistan was a mistake (see chart).
Most Americans either think that withdrawing from Afghanistan was the right decision or are not sure. But the polling suggests that Mr Biden could see slightly more severe consequences later. In the two weeks afterg the evacuation from Saigon, Mr Ford’s approval rating hovered between 51% and 52%, according to Gallup, a pollster. But according to YouGov, 42% of people give the president an unfavourable rating for the way he has handled the conflict in Afghanistan, whereas only 32% approve of it. The high net disapproval is largely because of partisanship. Mr Biden’s detractors include only a few Democrats (25%), but most Independents who have an opinion (72%) and almost every Republican (88%).
Opinions on whether involvement in Afghanistan was a mistake in the first place also divide along party lines. Between July and August, the proportion of Republicans who viewed the war as a mistake dropped from 37% to 30%. But over the same period, opinion among Democrats did not change at all, with 48% viewing the war as a mistake.
Still, a significant number of Americans think the army botched its drawdown in Afghanistan. Overall, 33% of adults think the withdrawal was a mistake, compared with 36% who do not. Again, Americans seem to be viewing events through the usual partisan lenses, with 50% of Democrats in favour of the withdrawal and 54% of Republicans taking the opposite view. That could bode well for Mr Biden’s ability to avoid paying a heavy political price for the debacle. But his approval rating is already trending downwards. In June, according to YouGov, roughly ten percentage points more Americans approved of Mr Biden’s performance as president than disapproved. By July, his position had slipped to +7. It is now roughly +3. A bitter ending to an unpopular war may not sink the president, but it is unlikely to help him.
Visit our YouGov polling interactive to track opinions about US politics and Mr Biden’s presidency.
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August 19, 2021 at 07:00AM
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Americans' views on the Afghanistan withdrawal run along party lines - The Economist
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