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Forecast: Thunderstorm chances next 3 days, average temperatures follow - KOMU 8

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This past week was dry (for some) and hot (for all). Finally, mother nature sends a cold front our way to knock back temperatures to near average, along with some rain chances. 

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES

The cold front will move slowly enough that we can expect chances for showers and thunderstorms for the next three days. It will not rain the entire time, in fact some might not get any rain at all. However, the chances are there area-wide.

Rainfall Trend 5 Day Fcst AM.png

This morning there is some thunderstorms moving into northwestern Missouri. While these will die out before reaching central Missouri, they will develop boundaries that will slide into the region. It will be along these boundaries that have the greatest chances for thunderstorms. These should be quite isolated, with most of us remaining dry for Sunday. 

HRRR ADI P.png

A slightly more organized chance of thunderstorms is possible on Monday as the actual cold front moves into the area. This cold front will be weakening as it moves through, so it will not provide much forcing to get storms going, therefore they will be widely scattered with little organization to them. Where exactly these storms could develop will depend on where the front is, right now locations south of I-70 have the greatest chance of these storms but they are possible area-wide. 

HRRR ADI P2.png

As the front moves to the south, we could still see some lingering showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday as well. Particularly in the morning. 

ECMWF ADI P.png

No severe weather is expected, although in some of the stronger storms heavy rain, frequent lightning, and wind gusts up to 40mph are possible. 

HURRICANE IDA

Hurricane Ida is expected to make landfall in Louisiana this afternoon as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. Winds up to 145mph, storm surge up to 15 feet, rainfall up to 18", and isolated tornadoes are all likely across the Gulf Coast throughout the day. 

As Ida continues northward, it would catch onto the cold front that will move through central Missouri. This cold front will steer it towards the Appalachian Mountains and away from Central Missouri. Therefore, no impacts from Ida are expected. 

Tropical Track.png

AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN

The cold front will be strong enough that it will knock down temperatures back to around average for late August/early September. The average high is 85, and we should hover more or less around that at least through Thursday. Heat index values will stay in the lower 90s. It is important to note that although it will be cooler than last week, it still is warm thus sunscreen/water is still necessary if you plan on being outdoors for an extended period of time. 

Temp Trend 5 Day Fcst AM.png

By next weekend temperatures might break into the 90s once again. 

8 Day AM.png

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Forecast: Thunderstorm chances next 3 days, average temperatures follow - KOMU 8
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