- Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
- A tropical storm warning has been posted along the Mexican coast.
- Cristobal is likely to linger over land in eastern Mexico through Friday.
- Beyond that, it is expected to move toward the U.S. Gulf Coast late Sunday or early Monday.
- Some impacts, including heavy rain and high surf, should reach the U.S. Gulf Coast beginning Saturday.
- Areas near the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida should monitor the progress of Cristobal.
- Cristobal was spawned by a large system called a Central American Gyre and the remnants of a former Eastern Pacific tropical storm.
- This gyre and Cristobal will produce torrential rain and life-threatening flooding and mudslides in Mexico and Central America.
Tropical Storm Cristobal made landfall in Mexico Wednesday morning, will continue to pound Mexico and Central America with life-threatening, flooding rain, and then track toward the U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend bringing a threat of flooding rain, high surf, coastal flooding and winds.
The center of Cristobal moved ashore just west of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, in the far western side of Campeche state just after 8:30 a.m. CDT Wednesday, with winds of 60 mph.
Cristobal continues to drift south-southeast at less than 5 mph.
A tropical storm warning continues along the Mexican coast from Campeche westward to Coatzacoalcos. The National Hurricane Center said tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are affecting portions of the warning area.
(MORE: Is An Active Hurricane Season Guaranteed After Two Early Storms?)
Current Storm Status and Projected Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding and strong winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)Cristobal became the record-earliest-in-season third named Atlantic storm - previously held by Tropical Storm Colin on June 5, 2016 - Tuesday in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Last year, the "C" storm, Chantal, didn't develop until Aug. 20.
U.S. Gulf Coast Forecast
Cristobal will linger inland or near the Bay of Campeche coast of eastern Mexico through Friday, lacking any significant steering winds aloft. It may weaken to a tropical depression before it emerges back into the Bay of Campeche or Gulf of Mexico later Friday.
This weekend, however, it's expected to be drawn northward into the Gulf of Mexico through a break in subtropical high pressure.
That could bring Cristobal near the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by later Sunday anywhere from the upper Texas coast to the Alabama Gulf Coast. It remains too soon to determine exactly where this system would come ashore.
Cristobal Steering
Early-June storms like Cristobal tend to be lopsided, with significant impacts far from the track of the center.
In this case, with a northward-moving Cristobal in the Gulf of Mexico, we expect a plume of deep, tropical moisture to wring out heavy rain well east of the center, as far east as the Florida Peninsula.
Also, increasing winds over the Gulf of Mexico will drive high surf to the beaches of the Gulf Coast, particularly to the east of the track from Louisiana to southwest Florida, generating dangerous rip currents and coastal flooding.
These far-reaching impacts are expected to increase beginning Saturday, and may persist into early Monday.
So, Cristobal is yet another case where the forecast path will not tell the whole story of impacts.
(MORE: Why the Projected Path Doesn't Always Tell the Full Story)
Rainfall Outlook and Forecast Path
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. The current forecast path of the center of Cristobal from the National Hurricane Center is shown by the red path.)Cristobal's intensity forecast is a bit complicated.
First up, as mentioned earlier, Cristobal will interact with land in Mexico the next few days. Just how far inland it will track in Mexico is a bit uncertain. The farther away it moves from the warm Bay of Campeche water, the weaker it may become.
Wind shear, the change in wind speed and/or direction with height that typically hinders intensification of tropical cyclones, is expected to be present in the Gulf of Mexico as Cristobal heads northward.
Current Satellite and Wind Shear
(Areas of clouds are shown in white. Areas of strong wind shear, the difference in wind speed and direction with height, are shown in purple. High wind shear is hostile to mature tropical cyclones and those trying to develop.)Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are currently warmer than average for early June and warm enough to support tropical development but not as warm as midsummer, and deep heat content is lacking in the western Gulf.
These factors should keep a lid on significant intensification of this system as it nears the U.S. Gulf Coast late in the weekend. For now, the most likely scenario is a tropical storm landfall.
(MORE: A Brief History of June Tropical Storms and Hurricanes)
Water Temperature Departures From Average
(Areas where water temperatures are warmer/cooler than average are shown by progressively darker yellow/blue contours.)Interests along the Gulf coasts of the U.S. and Mexico should monitor Cristobal's progress closely. Check back to weather.com for updates over the next several days. If anything, this is a reminder to refresh or develop your hurricane plan now.
Major Flood Threat in Mexico, Central America
The most serious threat right now is for more inundating rain over areas that have already been clobbered with torrential rain and deadly flooding in southern Mexico and Central America.
The National Hurricane Center said parts of the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala and Mexico's Chiapas state picked up 20 inches of rain last weekend. Another 10 to 20 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, is expected the next several days in those areas, as well as other Mexican states.
(MORE: Central America, Mexico Tropical Cyclones Have a Deadly History)
Rainfall Forecast
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in these areas, particularly in hilly or mountainous terrain.
In addition to Cristobal, this rainfall is also being fueled by what's called a Central American Gyre, or CAG. This "gyre" is a large, broad area of low pressure that often forms in late spring and early fall over Central America and the western Caribbean Sea.
Flooding from former Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda and its remnants caused damage and killed several people in El Salvador last weekend.
Amanda's leftover energy and spin played a role in triggering the development of Tropical Depression Three in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Monday afternoon, which then strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal on Tuesday.
Current Satellite
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
"along" - Google News
June 03, 2020 at 08:51PM
https://ift.tt/3eP3wbt
Tropical Storm Cristobal a US Gulf Coast Threat After Making Landfall Along Mexico's Bay of Campeche Coast - The Weather Channel
"along" - Google News
https://ift.tt/2z4LAdj
https://ift.tt/35rGyU8
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Tropical Storm Cristobal a US Gulf Coast Threat After Making Landfall Along Mexico's Bay of Campeche Coast - The Weather Channel"
Post a Comment