Sarasota and Manatee counties could feel the effects from this large storm.
Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to gain Category 1 hurricane strength as it nears Florida, but the track has shifted farther east, taking much of the state out of the cone of uncertainty.
As of the 5 p.m. Thursday advisory from the National Hurricane Center, a tropical storm watch was issued for the east coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet.
A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are expected in that area within 48 hours.
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Isaias was about 250 miles southeast of the southeastern Bahamas as of the 5 p.m. advisory. It was traveling northwest with 60 mph winds.
Although a sliver of the Sunshine State from Palm Beach County through Jacksonville remain in the cone of uncertainty, a bigger shift in the forecast to the right takes much of Florida outside of Isaias’ direct path.
But Isaias is a massive cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending 310 miles from its center. Southwest Florida could start feeling tropical-storm-force winds as soon as Saturday morning.
"The next eight to 10 hours will be very important as it goes over the mountains of Hispaniola," said Gov. Ron DeSantis, while meeting with aerospace industry leaders in Merritt Island. "Certainly we do expect to experience some impacts from the storm. How significant remains to be seen."
Maximum sustained wind speeds are forecast to reach 75 mph.
About 30% of the time, a storm travels outside the cone
The official forecast has Isaias gaining hurricane strength in the central Bahamas, with the center of the cone off the coast of Boca Raton on Saturday afternoon with 75 mph winds and 90 mph wind gusts.
But it’s important to note that the storm could go anywhere inside the cone, not just down the center. About 30 percent of the time, the storm travels outside the cone and with such a huge wind field, effects will be felt far outside the cone.
"Like Matthew four years ago, just a little wiggle makes a difference in what is experienced on land," said Brian McNoldy, a senior researcher at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. "But unlike Matthew, this isn’t a Category 4 hurricane."
Hurricane Matthew shaved by Palm Beach County with just 20 miles of ocean between the coast and sustained gales of 75 mph or higher.
McNoldy said the abnormally warm waters in Isaias’ path will nourish it as it moves northwest and north. The sea surface temperatures in the Bahamas and along the coast, especially between North Florida and the Outer Banks of North Carolina, are up to 2.7 degrees warmer than normal.
A tropical storm warning for the central and northwest Bahamas may be upgraded to a hurricane warning Thursday night.
Sarasota County emergency managers are preparing for Isaias, even if it does not directly hit the area.
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Isaias expected to become hurricane along Florida’s east coast - Sarasota Herald-Tribune
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