For serious Pitt fans and, of course, the coaching staff, National Letter of Intent Day, set to kick off at 7 a.m. Wednesday, is just as important as most game days.
Pitt lost to N.C. State and Boston College in October but still had time to salvage a winning season (6-5).
But if Pitt loses too many of its targeted recruits, the Panthers could be doomed to repeat one of those five-, six- or seven-victory seasons that have shown up half the time under Pat Narduzzi.
The good news is Narduzzi recruited well the previous two seasons, setting a foundation with:
• Linebacker SirVocea Dennis, who finished tied for third in the ACC this season in tackles for loss (14 ½, same number as senior defensive end Rashad Weaver).
• Running back Vincent Davis, whose 247-yard effort against Georgia Tech was the second-best rushing total in the ACC this season.
• Wide receiver Jordan Addison, who signed last December and was a star by September, finishing fourth in the ACC with 66 receptions.
• Running back Izzy Abanikanda and wide receiver Jaylon Barden, a pair of freshmen who flashed potential in limited opportunities.
Those players came from the classes of 2019 and ‘20 that were ranked 49th and 44th in the nation by Rivals.com. This year’s class is ranked No. 21 at the moment, the highest since the 2006 group (also ranked No. 21) led to nine- and 10-victory seasons in ‘08 and ‘09. That has turned out to be Pitt’s best back-to-back won/loss records since 1981-1982.
Pitt’s current class is ranked fourth in the ACC behind Clemson, Miami and North Carolina (assuming Notre Dame is one and done this season). But predicting the future on signing day is a foolish endeavor, especially in 2020, the year of the pandemic.
The NCAA banned in-person recruiting to help slow the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in prospects and coaches gathering less information about each other than in a normal year.
“Close to 60 to 70 percent of the class that will sign with FBS programs,” said ESPN national recruiting director Tom Luginbill, “may be signing with a program where they have never actually been on campus or met the coach face to face or shook a hand of a coach.
“It will be interesting to see how this thing unfolds over the next two to three years and what the ramifications are. I don’t think anybody truly knows what to expect long-term, from what the last nine months have created up until now.”
On paper, Luginbill likes Pitt’s list of 22 verbal commits. Some will not sign Wednesday and flip to another school. Others will wait until February to sign.
While noting the “tremendous upside” of the class, Luginbill said many of Pitt’s top-rated prospects are on defense, typical under Narduzzi.
“There is a very certain guy they go after,” he said. “The one thing they do a really good job of is they place an emphasis on the defensive front and the defensive corner. It’s a defensive-built football team.”
He said the top-graded guys are the three four-stars: linebacker Naquan Brown of Virginia Beach, Va., and defensive tackles Elliot Donald (Central Catholic) and defensive end Nahki Johnson (West Mifflin). Baldwin defensive tackle Dorien Ford, a highly regarded three-star, also plays on that side of the ball.
“You see the theme here,” Luginbill said. “They’re all at the top level of their class. Those are the premium positions. Everybody’s trying to get them. There aren’t enough of them to go around.”
Luginbill said Narduzzi is looking for what he calls “a certain fit.”
“A worker, a mental toughness aspect. A competitive temperament aspect to it that, I think, is really important to their overall process.”
He said those characteristics are difficult to identify without making personal contact.
“That’s what the risk is in this recruiting cycle,” Luginbill said, “particularly the type of player Pitt wants.”
Pitt’s class has only nine defensive players, a low mark under Narduzzi. Of the 13 on offense, six play on the line, and in a few years could be protecting 6-foot-6 quarterback Nate Yarnell of Austin, Texas.
Pitt also added two running backs, which means two more chairs in a room already crowded with five ball carriers, including senior A.J. Davis, who could return thanks to the NCAA’s free year of eligibility.
Both of the prospects — Malik Newton and Rodney Hammond — played high school football in Virginia, although the fall season was postponed there.
Luginbill said Newton (5-11, 215) is “a totally different type of back than what they played with this year.”
“He’s a big, power back, downhill guy, big, physical kid,” he said. “He’s going to be a power, run-game player, which I think they want to have ultimately as their lead bellcow.
“I like him. I don’t know how overly dynamic he is in terms of saying: ‘Would this guy be a lightning rod if he got the ball all the time?’”
Luginbill calls Hammond (5-10, 185), “the change of pace guy” who could find a role on the jet sweeps.
“He is the undersized scatback player who would be the complement to the power back. Different styles for different downs.”
Pitt also has six Pennsylvania products in its projected class, one short of Narduzzi’s largest in-state haul. A total of 10 come from Virginia, Florida, Georgia and Texas.
Pitt has had recent success recruiting the south, but Luginbill said to be wary.
“If I’m a school recruiting outside of my footprint and I’m in the midwest or northeast and I have to go down in the southeast, I’m always worried,” he said.
“The one thing about some of these coaches in the SEC and ACC, until that ink is dry, everybody’s available.”
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Jerry DiPaola is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Jerry by email at jdipaola@triblive.com or via Twitter .
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