UDPATE: When will the worst torrential rain, severe thunderstorms from Ida start? Latest on timing.
ALSO: Flash flood warnings issued as torrential rain from Ida lashes state
As heavy rains from the remnants of Hurricane Ida approach New Jersey this afternoon, forecasters warn that major flooding could occur along rivers in the northern and central parts of the state.
The National Weather Service is predicting as much as 8 inches of rain could fall between Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday morning in the northern half of the state, which is already soggy from one of the wettest summers on record — including rains from Tropical Storm Henri just a week and a half ago.
If that amount of rain does fall on the region, the National Weather Service is warning of heavy flooding along parts of the Passaic, Raritan and Saddle rivers.
The most significant flooding is projected along the Raritan River in Bound Brook, Manville and Raritan; along the Passaic River in Pine Brook and Little Falls; and along the Saddle River in Lodi.
Less severe flooding is projected along the Pompton River in Pompton Plains; along the Pequannock River in Macopin; in Stanton along the south branch of the Raritan River; and in Blackwells Mills along the Millstone River.
The timing of Ida’s arrival is not ideal as parts of Middlesex County — which lie within the Raritan River Basin — are recovering from damaging floods on Aug. 22 from Tropical Storm Henri.
That storm, plus an unusually wet summer, mean water levels are higher than usual.
David Robinson, a Rutgers University climatologist, said this week that Henri’s rains led to the most significant flooding in the Raritan River Basin since May 2014. Those waters have not had a chance to recede ahead of Ida’s arrival.
“The rivers are still flowing a little high ... the ground is a little more saturated than it typically is,” Robinson said. “And we’ve got another rainstorm coming our way, so any flooding should happen quicker this time around, all things being equal.
“That’s basin-wide flooding. All bets are off anytime you get that much rain.”
The flooding from Henri, which dropped between 8 and 9 inches of rain on some parts of the state, damaged houses and forced hundreds of people to evacuate their homes. The heaviest flooding was in Helmetta, Jamesburg and Monroe Township in Middlesex County, all of which sit along Manalapan Brook, which ultimately flows into the Raritan River.
Robinson said similar rainfall from Ida could be even more damaging.
“If we get 5-plus inches, we’re going to see major flooding occur, maybe more than what happened with Henri,” he said. “All things being equal, if we were to get a repeat of Henri, minus the localized flash flooding, the flooding would be a little bit worse.”
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Payton Guion may be reached at pguion@njadvancemedia.com.
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