- Hurricane Delta will make landfall along the Louisiana coast Friday evening.
- Hurricane warnings are in effect from the extreme upper Texas coast to parts of Louisiana.
- Storm surge, destructive winds, flooding rain and isolated tornadoes are all expected.
- This includes areas ravaged by Hurricane Laura in late August.
Hurricane Delta is a Category 2 storm heading for a Gulf Coast landfall this evening with life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and rainfall flooding from Louisiana and east Texas to Mississippi. This includes some of the same areas that were ravaged by Hurricane Laura more than a month ago.
As expected, Delta has begun to weaken slightly but it is important to not focus on its maximum sustained winds, as it will still be a powerful hurricane when it reached the Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Delta's worst weather is rolling ashore between Cameron and Intracoastal City, Louisiana now as the eyewall moves ashore.
Delta's center is currently about 35 miles south of Cameron, Louisiana, moving north-northeast at around 14 mph.
Current Satellite
Happening Now
Rainbands from Delta continue to spread inland and conditions are deteriorating along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts, and well inland across much of Louisiana. Heavy rainfall has already led to roadway flooding early Friday in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
Water levels are rising along parts of the Louisiana and Texas coast and will continue to rise into Friday night. The water level at the Freshwater Canal Locks has risen to over 5.5 feet. Coastal flooding was reported Friday morning in Nueces County, Texas and has been reported as far east as southeastern Louisiana, Friday afternoon.
Current Radar, Watches and Warnings
Winds may increase some over the next hour or two near the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts, but should decline some by late this evening. Winds will increase north of Interstate 10 in Louisiana through the evening.
The highest wind gust so far is 78 mph, which occurred at Texas Point, Texas.
Winds are gusting up to 60 mph in Lake Charles, Louisiana. Tropical-storm-force gusts continue from Galveston Bay to Vermillion Bay, including a 58 mph gust in Galveston and 51 mph wind gusts near Port Arthur, Texas and Cameron, Louisiana.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 160 miles from Delta's center.
Current Winds
Current Watches and Warnings
A hurricane warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Charles and Lafayette, Louisiana; and Port Arthur, Texas. This means hurricane conditions are expected Friday.
Watches and Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours. )A storm surge warning is also in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Pearl River, Louisiana, including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne. This means a life-threatening storm surge is expected, in this case Friday afternoon or early evening.
(NEWS: Where Delta Evacuations Have Been Issued)
Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Sargent to west of High Island, Texas, and from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans. This means tropical-storm-force winds are expected, in this case within 24 hours.
Forecast Timing, Intensity
As Delta draws nearer to the Gulf Coast, its wind intensity is expected to continue to diminish somewhat due to increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds and cooler Gulf water.
Despite this possible weakening on approach, Delta won't have much time to weaken before landfall and will still be a formidable hurricane at landfall along the Louisiana coast later Friday.
(MORE: Why Delta's Weakening Before Landfall Won't Matter Much)
Delta will then move inland over the lower Mississippi Valley this weekend and will weaken quickly.
Latest Information
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)Forecast Impacts
Storm Surge, Waves
Delta's storm surge will be dangerous and life-threatening regardless of any weakening of its winds up until landfall.
The highest storm surge is expected in parts of south-central Louisiana, not just near the immediate Gulf Coast, but also in bays, inlets and to some degree inland along rivers and bayous. Inundation could reach 7 to 11 feet above ground in these areas.
The highest storm surge is expected by 8 or 9 pm CDT.
In some of these areas, flooding may take days to recede, not just from storm surge, but also from rain-swollen rivers and bayous temporarily backed up unable to drain effectively to the Gulf.
A dangerous storm surge is also expected in areas that were ravaged by Hurricane Laura in late August. Any slight shift westward in the forecast track could bring higher storm surge to these areas than what is currently forecast.
At least some storm surge flooding is also expected in southeast Louisiana, including along Lake Pontchartrain, and along the Mississippi, Alabama and upper Texas coasts, including areas affected by Hurricane Sally last month.
Storm Surge Forecast
(From the National Hurricane Center, these are peak inundations above ground level if the storm surge from Delta arrives at high tide. Subtle changes in the track forecast may lead to changes in this surge forecast.)Winds
Tropical storm-force winds have arrived in the hurricane warning area along the northern Gulf Coast. Hurricane conditions (winds 74 mph or greater) are expected in this area within the next few hours.
Wind Gust Forecast
The strongest winds with Delta will be near the southwest and south-central Louisiana and extreme upper Texas coasts at landfall as the eyewall moves inland. This is where structural damage, power outages and downed trees will be most widespread and severe.
Southwest Louisiana is particularly vulnerable to strong winds because of the damage Laura already caused there in August.
(MORE: Hurricane Delta Puts Hurricane Laura Recovery on Hold in Louisiana)
As with most hurricanes, strong winds capable of downing trees and power outages will also extend inland as Delta gains some forward speed near and after landfall, into much of Louisiana, extreme eastern Texas, Mississippi and southern Arkansas late Friday into Saturday.
Power Outage Potential
Flooding Rainfall
A faster forward speed than what we saw with Hurricane Sally last month will lessen Delta's extreme rainfall potential to some degree, though heavy rainfall is still expected, particularly along and to the east of its path.
As mentioned earlier, this heavy rainfall combined with storm surge could worsen and prolong flooding for a time along the northern Gulf Coast.
According to the National Hurricane Center, 5 to 10 inches, with isolated 15-inch amounts are expected with Delta in southwest and central Louisiana. This rainfall could cause flash flooding and minor to locally major river flooding.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated 10-inch amounts are forecast in parts of extreme eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and western Mississippi.
Some locally heavy rainfall will also spread into the Ohio Valley, Southeast and mid-Atlantic this weekend.
Rainfall Potential
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall.)Tornadoes
As with most landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms, there's also a threat of isolated tornadoes from Delta.
Southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi have the greatest chance of seeing a few tornadoes through Friday night, mainly in outer rainbands where rotating thunderstorms typically occur in tropical cyclones moving inland.
Some isolated tornadoes are also possible Saturday with the remnant of Delta in parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
Thunderstorm Outlook
(Shaded on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply for the severe weather risk on a particular day.)Historical Notables
Delta's landfall will be a record 10th landfalling hurricane or tropical storm in the U.S. this season, which will break the previous record of nine such landfalls in a season that had stood since 1916.
It will also be the fourth Louisiana landfalling storm of 2020, tying 2002 for the record most in any season in the Pelican State, according to Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University tropical scientist.
And it will be the first time in 134 years that two hurricanes impacted western Louisiana in the same year, according to University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy.
It's also an unusually strong hurricane so late in the season so far north and west in the Gulf of Mexico, as NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake noted.
Storm History
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six formed late Sunday evening to the south of Jamaica and then strengthened into Tropical Storm Delta on Monday morning, the 25th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.
(MORE: Countdown to a Record Season)
Delta became the ninth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday evening.
Reconnaissance aircraft measured a drop in central pressure of 18 millibars from Monday's 2 p.m. EDT National Hurricane Center pressure estimate to when it was found to have become a hurricane about six hours later.
Winds in Delta increased by 85 mph in the 24 hours ending 11:20 a.m. EDT Tuesday. That was more than double the criteria for the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone, which is a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.
Delta's rapid intensification was due to an environment of the highest ocean heat content anywhere in the tropical Atlantic basin, low wind shear and sufficiently moist air, in a region notorious for rapid intensification in October, according to Sam Lillo, a NOAA scientist based in Boulder, Colorado.
Delta's tiny size also helped it intensify so rapidly.
(MORE: Delta Was the Fastest on Record to Intensify From Tropical Depression to Category 4)
Delta made landfall Wednesday morning around 5:30 a.m. CDT near Puerto Morelos, Mexico, in the Yucatan Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane.
Delta's Landfall In Mexico
A wind gust to 75 mph was measured at Puerto Morelos, 64 mph in Cozumel and 106 mph on an elevated WeatherFlow observing site near Cancún.
(NEWS: Power Out, Trees Downed as Delta Strikes Yucatan)
Delta's weakening prior to its Yucatan landfall appeared to be due to land interaction, some modest wind shear impinging on the hurricane from the east, inhibiting its outflow aloft, and also perhaps some dry air working into the tiny circulation.
The maximum sustained winds in Delta topped out at 145 mph Tuesday, but were down to 85 mph as of Wednesday 4 p.m. CDT soon after emerging over the Gulf of Mexico.
Strengthening resumed as it tracked through the Gulf of Mexico.
For the first time in Delta's lifetime as a hurricane, a distinct eye finally cleared out in Infrared satellite imagery Thursday afternoon, and a U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission measured flight-level winds strong enough to warrant an upgrade to Category 3 status.
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Hurricane Delta's Landfall Imminent Along Southwest Louisiana Coast With Dangerous Storm Surge, Winds, Flooding Rain - The Weather Channel
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