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SEATTLE – The Rangers are finally done with Seattle for the year. And you can’t blame them for wanting to wipe their time with the Mariners from their collective memory.
The list of stuff to forget is long: There had been 13 losses entering Thursday. Nine of them came by one or two runs. Five of them came in games in which the Rangers had a lead in the seventh or later. It goes on.
But there is one thing worth remembering: The Mariners rotation.
The Mariners hammered that home again on Wednesday when homegrown rookie George Kirby held the Rangers to a run in six innings in a 3-1 win. It was Kirby’s fourth start against the Rangers this year since jumping straight from Double-A. Seattle has won them all.
“He executed pitches,” Rangers manager Tony Beasley said. “He didn’t dominate us. We hit some balls hard. But he threw the ball over the plate. He pitched to contact. He did a good job. They’ve done a good job.”
Indeed they have. The Mariners offer a model of what the Rangers rotation might look like if their current plans come to fruition. It features a foundation of drafted and developed talent and an elite, albeit expensive, finish out.
Logan Gilbert and Kirby were the Mariners’ first-round picks in 2018-19. Robbie Ray was Seattle’s big free agent investment this past winter. Luis Castillo was the Mariners’ trade deadline acquisition this year; he signed a five-year extension last week. In Ray and Castillo, the Mariners have invested $223 million.
There are some parallels to the Rangers, though it suggests, at best, the Rangers are a year or three behind Seattle in terms of development.
Like Seattle, the Rangers are willing to invest big dollars in free-agent pitching. Owner Ray Davis and GM Chris Young both said in the last month that starting pitching is the Rangers’ top priority this winter. Whether the Rangers are willing to invest another $200 million on top of the $500 million they spent last winter is one question that will have to be answered.
Like Seattle, the Rangers used their first-round picks on pitchers in back-to-back seasons: 2021 and 2022. The Rangers used the second overall pick in 2021 on Jack Leiter and the third overall pick on Kumar Rocker. The question there: Can either of them be counted on to develop as quickly as Gilbert and Kirby have developed?
That always seems to be the question with the Rangers: Can they develop pitching?
The Rangers have had only one pitcher who had pitched exclusively for their organization throw 162 innings (enough to qualify for the ERA title) in the last nine years: Martín Pérez. He did it in 2016-17 before the club decided he was no longer in their plans. Pérez, of course, is back, at least for another week. He’s a free agent at the end of the season.
The minor league schedule officially came to a close on Wednesday. There was progress. The system posted a .522 winning percentage and produced a championship at Double-A, a key rung in the development system. The winning percentage ranked 10th among all 30 MLB organizations and the organization’s run differential (220) was seventh.
Now wins, championships and talent rankings aren’t the definitive minor league evaluation tool by any stretch. But if you want to create a winning culture, it doesn’t hurt to instill it at the minor league level.
Questions about the development of the first-round picks, though, linger. Cole Winn, taken one pick after Gilbert in 2018, regressed at Triple-A and saw his walks per nine innings double to an unacceptable 6.4. Rocker will debut in the Arizona Fall League and has yet to make a professional start.
As for Leiter, it’s hard to draw a favorable comp yet between his performance and those of Gilbert and Kirby. While Leiter has a similar repertoire to Gilbert, there are stark differences in their command.
Leiter walked 56 batters in 92 2/3 regular season innings during 22 starts for Frisco this year and another 10 in five postseason innings. Compare that to Gilbert, who made a total of 27 minor league starts and walked just 33 in 140 innings.
Kirby? He made 29 minor league starts and walked just 21. Yes, the Texas League is a challenge. Yes, Leiter skipped by Class A entirely in his start. But both Gilbert, who made his MLB debut in 2021, and Kirby, also pitched in the Texas League, quickly dominated and moved on. Kirby moved straight from Double-A to the majors in May.
The Rangers are not discouraged by Leiter’s first year, but it’s also not realistic to think he will be in position to jump to the major leagues early next year.
Yes, the Mariners offer a model for the Rangers to follow.
The question the Rangers must answer is how quickly they can do it.
On Twitter: @Evan_P_Grant
Find more Rangers coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.
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