To figure out who is winning on election night it’ll help to think of the presidential selection process as a huge game of craps.
Wait, what’s that? When you think of politics you already use a similar word?
No matter, in this analogy, the connection isn’t jubilation or soul-crushing loss. It’s data. Specifically, as events unfold in both games – dice and presidential election watching – you’re going to be bombarded by numbers. Your challenge is to sort out the important from the lame.
And those non-lame numbers really are critical. In craps, the stakes are merely financial. This year’s election – to hear both sides tell it – could be about democracy itself.
Here are some important numbers for Nov. 3:
First, 10This year, to get a clue about which candidate is winning on election night (yes, we know, that question might linger; we’ll get to that in a bit), the first number to remember is 10. That’s the list of states – Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas and Iowa – that favored Donald Trump by fewer than 10 percentage points over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election. Broadly speaking, these are the states to watch.
If Trump holds off Joe Biden in all 10, he’s probably winning the Electoral College and the White House. If Biden takes three or more, he’s probably the winner. If Biden prevails in five, his margin could be decisive; if he takes all 10, it’ll be a landslide. Few predict Biden will take all 10.
Next, 3Here’s what three of those states will be telling you:
Arizona: America’s political future starts tonight.
In theory, Arizona shouldn’t be close. The GOP holds a slight voter registration advantage and voters have preferred the Democrat presidential candidate only twice (1952, 1996) in the past 60 years. Four years ago, Trump won here by about four points.
But the state is changing, demographically and politically, and many have predicted it’ll soon become a battleground state. Neck-and-neck polling suggests “soon” is now.
A Trump win could show GOP strength in the emerging voting world. A Biden victory – particularly if it’s more than a couple of points – might show otherwise. In Arizona, both sides are courting college-educated people of all stripes and non-Cuban Hispanics, groups that figure to determine a lot of elections going forward.
Wisconsin: Race matters.
In one of several states that narrowly flipped red in ’16, this year’s result might hinge on racial tension. Recent protests and violence in Kenosha and other parts of the state have become a political Rorschach of sorts, with Trump talking up law and order and Biden talking about conciliation. Voter reaction to those themes – particularly in the suburbs around Milwaukee – could determine the presidency.
North Carolina: Actually, women matter.
A state of 11 million has registered more than 1.3 million new voters since 2016. So much of the electorate in North Carolina won’t be the same one that gave Trump a four-point win four years ago.
And while the state remains wildly diverse – with tech and financial hubs, rural counties and beachfront/retirement communities – a lot of North Carolina’s new voters are college-educated women. Recent polling shows that particular demographic moving away – possibly sprinting – from Trump. But the same polling shows Trump still leading among white men without college degrees, a voting bloc that’s still strong in the state.
One note: Unlike some swing states, Arizona, Florida and North Carolina figure to count up most of their presidential votes on election night or early the day after. Likewise, Senate results also could be available, and two of those states – Arizona and North Carolina – are viewed as among the handful of states that will help determine party control of the senate after 2020.
Finally, 3,141The term “national” election is bogus. A presidential election is actually 3,141 independently run county (or county-equivalent) elections, the results of which are mashed up into state winners and, in turn, the Electoral College.
With that in mind, here are a few super important counties to watch on Nov. 3:
Kent County, Michigan – Once a reliable source of GOP votes in a state that leans Democrat, the county that includes Grand Rapids (home of Gerald Ford) might be changing.
In 2016, Trump beat Clinton in Kent County by three points, well under the nine-point spread GOP candidate Mitt Romney had over Barack Obama in Kent County in 2012. The kicker is that Romney lost Michigan by about nine points while Trump won by three-tenths of a point.
If Biden wins Kent County, there’s an excellent chance he’s taking Michigan. If Trump wins by a bigger spread than he saw four years ago, he might be heading to victory statewide.
Other Michigan counties to watch: Wayne (Detroit), Macomb (suburb of Detroit) and Calhoun (Battle Creek).
Bucks County, Pennsylvania – The mostly white, high-income Philadelphia suburb might be the country’s true political battleground. Four years ago, Clinton beat Trump in Bucks County by less than one percentage point. Conversely, Trump won the state by about the same margin.
Pennsylvania, then and now, is viewed as a presidential “tipping point,” meaning demographics suggest the state winner has a high likelihood of taking the White House. So, on election night, as the tipping points of the potential tipping point, voters in Bucks County could be the most important people in the country.
Other Pennsylvania counties to watch: Beaver (near Pittsburgh), Erie, Lackawanna (Scranton, where Biden grew up).
Miami-Dade County, Florida – Spoiler alert! Biden is going to win Florida’s biggest county. The place is heavily Democratic and, four years ago, Clinton beat Trump there by nearly 30 points.
What will matter is the size of Biden’s win. Despite Clinton’s blowout in Miami-Dade, Trump won Florida by 1.3 points.
Also, while Miami-Dade is heavily Democrat, it’s also heavily Cuban-American, a group that could help Trump. Polls suggest Biden will win the Hispanic vote in Florida, overall, but they also show that his lead over Trump in that group isn’t as wide in Florida as it is among Hispanics nationally.
If Trump can win over older voters (polls show Biden and Trump close in that voting group) in Florida, he might retain the state’s 29 electoral votes.
Other Florida counties to watch: Pinellas (St. Petersburg), Sarasota, Broward (Fort Lauderdale).
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Election night is a crazy show. Here’s how to follow along on Nov. 3 - OCRegister
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